Impact of Exogamy and Fertility on the growth of Aboriginal groups in Canada
Norbert Robitaille, Départment de démographie de l ùniversité de Montréal and Eric Guimond Indian and Northern Affairs Canada

This study looks at the interaction between exogamy and fertility and its impact on the growth of Aboriginal populations in Canada (North American Indian, Metis and Inuit). Let us assume that the Aboriginal populations include all births of exogamous unions (Aboriginal and non-aboriginal) and that fertility is the same for both endogamous and exogamous unions. Therefore exogamy, by allowing for a greater number of Aboriginal unions, will stimulate the growth of Aboriginal populations. However, because non-aboriginals have lower fertility, the reality is far more complex. To better understand these dynamics, we have built a model showing the relationship between (a) the ratio of endogamous fertility to exogamous fertility and (b) the prevalence of exogamy. This model identifies: (a) conditions under which exogamy has a positive (or negative) contribution to demographic growth; (b) conditions under which the number of exogamous births is greater (or smaller) than endogamous births. According to 1986 and 1996 census data (custom retrievals), Aboriginal groups display different levels of exogamy and fertility. Except for the North American Indians during the 1986-1991 period, exogamy and fertility differentials (exogamous vs endogamous unions) always contribute positively to the demographic growth.

The Impact of Family Composition and Socio-Economic Status on Aboriginal Youth School Attendance
Karen Mac Con and Eric Guimond, Indian and Northern Affairs Canada

"An investment in Aboriginal people begins with an investment in children. Healthy lives start with healthy beginnings" (Gathering Strength, Canada's Aboriginal Action Plan, 1997). The level of education attained by a generation can be used to predict the future quality of life that generation will experience. Therefore, a healthy beginning for Aboriginal children is one that includes an environment conducive to positive educational experiences. This paper will investigate socio-economic and socio-cultural factors on school attendance using Census data on families, by looking at how family type and the socio-economic characteristics of the parents impact a variety of outcomes for children, primarily, school attendance.

New Developments in Aboriginal Definitions and Measures
Andy Siggner, Statistics Canada; Annette Vermaeten, Department of Indian Affairs & Northern Development; Chris Durham, Policy Research Secretariat; Jeremy Hull, Prologica Consulting; Eric Guimond, Department of Indian Affairs & Northern Development; and Mary Jane Norris, Department of Indian Affairs & Northern Development

This paper will explore the issues around confusion in defining the Aborginal population due to the various sources, definitions and multi-dimensional concepts of Aboriginality. The Aboriginal Information Management Committee hired a contractor to conduct a survey of interdepartmental and Aboriginal organizations on the need and measurements of Aboriginal definitions used within member organizations. These issues needed to be resolved to support various activities of stakeholders, including the development of aboriginal projections based on the 1996 census. This Paper will discuss the survey results as a contemporary issue in Aboriginal demography as Aboriginal organizations and the Government of Canada respond to providing programs and services to the Aboriginal population in the 21st century.

The Stage of Epidemiologic Transition in Ghana
Kwame Boadu, Department of Sociology, The University of Alberta

Several studies have sought to explain the economic and social antecedents of mortality and morbidity trends in populations. And it has been established that mortality and morbidity differentials within populations represent strong indications of prevailing inequalities in health status between and among different subgroups of the population. The theory of epidemiologic transition also underscores the complex change in patterns of health and disease and the interactions between these patterns and their demographic, economic and sociologic determinants and consequences. It is posited that disease patterns in Ghana are conditioned by the whole complex of sociodemographic factors consisting of demographic (e.g., mortality, fertility, age structure), economic (e.g., industry, market systems, labour force participation), social (e.g., class structure, family structure, family formation), cultural (e.g., religion, norms, values, beliefs, customs), political (e.g., kinship systems, legislation, structure of government), environmental (e.g., place of residence, pollution), as well as other internal and external factors. The study aims to: (1) situate Ghana in terms of its stage of epidemiologic transition; (2) examine the prevalence of malaria - a leading infectious disease; and (3) investigate the sociodemographic variations in this population with respect to malaria over the last decade.

Epidemiological Transition in Mongolia
Batbayar Chuluunzagd, Demographic Division, School of Economic Studies, Mongolian National University

Mongolia is in gradual epidemiological transition from a preponderance of infectious diseases towards noncommunicable and degenerative diseases. Main features of this transition are sharp decrease in mortality from infectious and parasitic diseases and sharp increase in mortality from diseases of circulatory system and neoplasm.

The priority health problems include high maternal mortality, high mortality among young men, high incidence of some communicable diseases in the recent years (for example, viral hepatitis, tuberculosis, brucellosis and sexually transmitted diseases). Viral hepatitis B affected 3,2 per population in 1997. The high occurrence of liver disorders and liver cancer is an important complication for viral hepatitis B. Carrier rate of hepatitis B virus is high at 13% in the general population. Mongolia has followed WHO`s strategy for prevention by vaccination and developing its local production of hepatitis B vaccine. Brucellosis is the second most important infectious disease in Mongolia, after viral hepatitis B.

The number of sexually transmitted diseases (STD) has increased remarkably in the last five years. The end of 1998 has identified only two cases of HIV infection. However, increase of STDs shows that the risk behaviours are widespread in Mongolia and create the potential for a rapid increase in HIV infections.

Programmes to control acute respiratory infections and diarrheal diseases have run successfully and these programmes have made a positive contribution to reduction of overall infant mortality by 36% and under-5-mortality by 41% from 1991-1997. Other reasons for declining child mortality are higher immunization coverage, improved breastfeeding and the increasingly widespread use of oral rehydration therapy for diarrhea.

Mongolia has placed high priority on universal immunization, achieving 90% immunization coverage for under one year age group for all Expanded Programme on Immunization antigens (pertussis, dipthteria, tetanus, polio, measles and tuberculosis) and also for hepatitis B. The purpose of this paper is to attempt to briefly describe the present situation. The emphasis is on explaining the present situation within the context of health services implemented by the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare.

Maternal Education and Child Morbidity in Ghana
Stephen Obeng Gyimah, Department of Sociology, University of Western Ontario

This paper examines mother's level of education and child morbidity in Ghana. Using the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data, our multivariate logistic model showed a strong relationship between mother's level of education and the probability of a child becoming sick. Children whose mothers have no formal education are 56 percent more likely to become sick than children who belong to mothers with at least secondary level education. It is argued that children do not become sick not because their mothers have no formal education but because the majority of such mothers rarely understand the benefits of good nutrition and hygiene. Again, not only do educated mothers have more resources at their disposal but they are also more likely to flout social taboos and customs that are harmful to children.

Child Morbidity in Kenya: Does Women's Status Matter?
Walter R. Omariba, Department of Sociology, University of Western Ontario

Recent data from the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey, 1998, collected within the framework of broader demographic and health surveys for developing countries at Micro International of USA, shows that child mortality in Kenya increased by 24% over the decade. This paper utilizes logistic regression to examine the relationship between women's status measured by education level, occupation, household income, household environmental conditions, place of residence, and marital status and child morbidity which is measured by incidence of malaria, pneumonia, and diarrhea among children under three years, two weeks preceding the survey. The study is premised on the assumption that children's exposure to sickness is conditioned by social, economic, and environmental factors that will be captured by mothers' status. Since children who die are more likely to have been sick than not, this study's importance lies in the contribution it will make in identifying those most at risk of sickness and therefore death, and whom interventionist programmes should target.

Migration and Residential Mobility of Canada's Aboriginal Groups: An Analysis of Census Data
Mary Jane Norris, Dan Beavon, & Eric Guimond, Department of Indian Affairs and Northern Development; and Martin Cooke, University of Western Ontario

Migration and mobility are complex components of Aboriginal demography, having significant geographic, social and economic implications for Aboriginal populations across Canada, on reserves, and in rural and urban areas off reserve. This paper explores various dimensions of migration and residential mobility. The authors use 1996 Census data to analyze different migration patterns of origin-destination flows within Canada based on the geography of reserves, rural areas and urban areas (Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and non-CMAs). Comparisons are made not only between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations, but also among Canada's different Aboriginal groups (Registered Indian, non-status Indian, Métis and Inuit).

Analysis of census data shows that the four Aboriginal groups differ in their degree of urbanization and as a result, their mobility and migration patterns vary from each other. Unlike other Aboriginal groups, the majority of registered Indians reside on reserves and hence differ in their migration patterns. Based on the 1991-96 and 1995-96 periods, migration clearly was not a major determinant of the growth of Aboriginal populations in urban areas off reserve, having had only a slightly negative impact. There was, however, significant population growth in urban areas, which occurred through a number of other factors including: natural increase; legislative components related to the Indian Act (such as reinstatements to registered Indian status); and ethnic mobility, that is change in an individual's reported ethnic origin/identity over censuses. Contrary to popular media misperceptions, there has been no observed mass exodus of registered Indians from reserves to cities. Indeed, census data show that reserves have consistently posted small net inflows. Due to reserves, mobility and migration patterns of registered Indians differ from the other Aboriginal groups. For example, while other Aboriginal groups posted net inflows to rural areas, registered Indians showed net losses. Registered Indians move to and from cities at a greater rate than other Aboriginal groups and non-Aboriginal people. The high rate of churn for registered Indians to and from, as well as within, cities could well contribute to the impression that cities are experiencing an increase in Aboriginal population through migration. The authors also consider some of the effects of this churn on different aspects of social cohesion within communities.

Emerging Aboriginal Identities Moving into the New Millennium: The Canadian, American, Australian and New Zealand Experiences
Eric Guimond, Mary Jane Norris, Dan Beavon, Department of Indian and Northern Affairs

The demographic growth of Aboriginal populations of Canada during the 1986-1996 period is exceptionally high. Observed growth rates exceed by far the theoretical maximum of 5.5% per annum for a closed population, which is basically the case of Aboriginal populations at the national level. Analysis of census data has revealed that ethnic mobility, defined as changes in the reporting of individual affiliations with an Aboriginal group over census periods or over generations, is an important contributor to the growth of Aboriginal populations (Guimond, 1999).

This study compares the demographic growth of Aboriginal populations living in Canada, the United States, Australia and New Zealand. The following topics will be compared: concepts for defining Aboriginal population, components of growth (fertility, mortality and ethnic mobility) and their relative importance in contributing to demographic change. Preliminary analyses of census counts indicate similar patterns of demographic growth. A longitudinal analysis reveals increases in cohort sizes: the number of persons born in a given year is not decreasing, but is actually increasing, as a result of changes in self-identification.

The paper concludes with an examination of implications of changing Aboriginal identities for analysis of trends in socioeconomic characteristics and policy research, and for projections of future demographic growth.

Measuring the Well-Being of Aboriginal Peoples Internationally
Daniel Beavon, and Martin Cooke Department of Indian and Northern Affairs Canada

Since 1990, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has calculated, on an annual basis, a composite index called the Human Development Index (HDI). The purpose of the HDI is to measure human choices. These choices are to live long and healthy lives (life expectancy), to acquire knowledge (educational attainment), and to have income for a decent standard of living (discounted GDP per capita). By creating a composite measure of both social and economic conditions, a more adequate picture of well?being may be portrayed.

The HDI has received a lot of media and political attention in many countries. Few countries, however, have taken the effort to disaggregate this composite index to assess the well-being of their Aboriginal populations. This study will make international comparisons between and among the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal peoples of four similar countries: the United States, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia. This cross-sectional analysis will allow international indigenous groups and policy-makers to assess which countries have made the most progress with respect to their legislation, policy, and programs that have been directed towards Aboriginal peoples. The difficulties in undertaking longitudinal or trend analyses due to the international phenomenon of ethnic mobility will also be examined.

ZPG or NPG: How much growth is good for us?
Tom Wonnacott, Department of Mathematics and Actuarial Science, The University of Western Ontario

One of the most prevalent but least questioned of demographers' assumptions that demographers make is that the world's population should level off. But why shouldn't we aim instead for a moderate increase, or a moderate decline -- that might bring us after a hundred years to a population of 12 billion or 3 billion? It makes a huge difference. But where we ought to aim is seldom debated, because it is such a difficult question -- of values as much as facts. This poster will address some crucial questions of values, and ask for your ideas. It will be quite philosophical, mostly from a utilitarian viewpoint ("the most good for the most people", as discussed by Joel Cohen in How Many People Can the Earth Support). And it will pay particular attention to environmental issues.

Demographic and Socio-Cultural Implications of Globalization
Anthony H. Richmond, Emeritus Professor, York University

What is the impact of globalization on ethnic relations within and between states? Whether border controls are maintained, relaxed, or strengthened there are policy implications arising from globalization, and consequent population mobility. Almost all countries have multiracial and multilingual populations, requiring policies that are designed to accommodate diversity and protect the rights of minorities. Globalization has made the need for such policies to be recognized universally. Given the postmodern trend toward fragmentation, we may be moving toward a system of wealthy metropolitan city-states engaged in global commerce, while their impoverished hinterlands war with each other! There could be a multiplicity of ethno-cultural conflicts in these economically deprived regions, but this does not rule out the possibility of a larger confrontation between major powers. The implications of globalization for Canada's immigration and multicultural policies are examined.

Ethnic Exogamy and Endogamy in Canada: The Case of Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver
Christine Lessard, Strategic Research and Analysis, Department of Canadian Heritage

This exploratory study examined the rates of exogamy and endogamy among different ethnic groups in Canada, focussing on the metropolitan areas of Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver in 1996. The data source used were special tabulations from the 1996 Census of Population. Firstly, a descriptive analysis of these tables was conducted to determine the patterns of intermarriage across 19 ethnic groups. Secondly, cluster analysis was used to measure the direction and preference of marital choice among ethnic groups. Spouses of mixed ethnic origins had the greatest propensity to out-marry followed by individuals of Northern and Western European ethnic ancestry. These individuals were also more prone to marry someone of mixed ethnic origins. Individuals of Asian, Jewish and Canadian ethnicity were found to be the most endogamous among the groups examined.

Ethnocultural Reproduction and Attitudes Toward Cohabiting Relationships
Barbara Mitchell, Department of Sociology/Anthropology & Gerontology Programs, Simon Fraser University

This paper explicates ethno-cultural differences in attitudes toward cohabiting relationships among young adults through an examination of a number of principal factors through which ethnic culture is transmitted. These include elements of the family background of the young adult, as well as socio-demographic and cultural measures. The data set used is the Culture and Coresidence Study (Gee, Mitchell, Wister & Lai, 1999-2000), which includes a random sample of 1,907 young adults living in the Greater Vancouver Regional District aged 19-35 who belong to one of four ethnocultural groups: British, Chinese, Indo-Canadian and Southern-European origin. A subsample of 1,729 young adults who have not experienced a common law partnership were selected for this study. Bivariate analyses show strong ethnocultural differences in the propensity and acceptability of cohabitation, with the British being most favourable towards cohabitation, followed by the Southern-Europeans, Chinese, and finally, Indo-Canadians. Results from the logistic regression analysis reveal that the latter association is largely accounted for by the following variables: child's religiosity, traditionalism, use of language with peers, age, gender, as well as father's religiosity. These findings are discussed in terms of their importance for the reproduction of ethnic culture, partnership formation and contemporary youth transitions into adulthood.

Life Satisfaction in Canada: How Happy Are Our Immigrants and Ethnic Groups?
Fernando Mata, Multiculturalism, Program, Department of Canadian Heritage

Using data from the 1997 National Survey of Giving, Volunteering and Participating, the author examined the reported levels of life satisfaction by members of immigrant groups and ethnic groups in Canada. The sample examined was made-up by 1,586 immigrants and 17,109 individuals of both single multiple ethnic origins aged 15 years old and over. Overall, 92% of Canadians reported to be either very satisfied or somewhat satisfied with their life in the country. Immigrants with longer periods of residence as well as those reporting Dutch ethnic origin were found among the most satisfied groups. It was also clear that some groups were less satisfied than others. Immigrants of moderate stay in Canada (10-19 years of residence) as well as individuals reporting visible minority origins such as Black, South Asian or Aboriginal were relatively less satisfied with life than other groups. Multivariate analysis of the data showed that immigration related effects on life satisfaction were completely neutralized by selected demographic, socio-economic, attitudinal and residential covariates, not all effects of ethnic memberships did so.

The Impact of Family Environment on the Children of Teen Mothers
Heather Dryburgh and Feng Hou, Household, Family and Social Statistics Division, Statistics Canada

Recent US studies have examined the economic, health and some social outcomes associated with teenage parents and their children. They suggest that, in the United States, children of teen mothers are more likely to be living in poverty, are less likely to be in excellent health, and tend to do more poorly on cognitive ability tests than children born to mothers age 20 or older. A recent debate in the US literature concerns whether health and behavioural problems of children to teens are related to the age of the mother, or are more likely associated with the mother's background and her family characteristics. There are few comparable studies in Canada.

Using Statistics Canada's National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth, the present study will examine whether the patterns observed in the US are applicable to the Canadian context. In particular, this study examines how children born to teenage mothers differ from other children in their family environment, and how the differences in family environment affect their health and behavioural outcomes. Furthermore, this study analyses whether the effects of family environment on children born to teen mothers increase with children's age.

Leaving Home in Quebec: Theoretical and Social Implications
Marc Molgat, Ecole de service social, University of Ottawa

Based on the analysis of the 1981, 1991 and 1996 Census data and of results from a survey on youth migration conducted with approximately 5800 youth aged between 15 and 34 in Quebec, this paper sets out the general patterns of leaving home in Quebec. Particular attention is paid to sex, age and regional-urban differences. Findings are discussed in the light of notions of delocalisation (Giddens) and risk (Beck) and their interplay in theories of transitions to adulthood. The analysis focuses on the appropriateness of individualization theories in explaining the passage to adulthood. The empirical evidence raises questions as to whether trends in leaving home indicate increased individualization among youth or patterns of social reproduction. Social implications of prolonged home staying and limited geographical mobility during youth are also discussed.

Home-Leaving and Home Returning in Canada: Cultural Dimensions
Ellen M. Gee, Department of Sociology/Anthropology; Barbara A. Mitchell, Department of Sociology/Anthropology & Gerontology & Andrew V. Wister, Gerontology Programs, Simon Fraser University

This paper examines variations in home-leaving and home returning behaviour among four ethno-cultural groups in Canada: British, southern Europeans, Chinese and Indo-Canadians. Using data collected in a 1999-2000 survey of 1907 young adults (aged 19-35) residing in the Vancouver area, this largely descriptive paper focuses on cultural variations in age at home-leaving, reasons for home-leaving and home-staying, incidence of and ages at home-returning, and reasons for home-returning. In addition, the relative importance of ethnocultural origin in these behaviours is assessed using multivariate techniques. Using a life-course theoretical perspective, this paper contributes to the understanding of the transition to adulthood in cultural context. Also, policy implications are discussed.

To Grandmother's House We Go: Grandparent and Grandchildren Co-residency Patterns
Doug Norris, Statistics Canada & Monica Boyd, Department of Sociology Florida State University

By the close of the 20th century, the monolithic image of families had been replaced. Supplanting the 1950s image of two parents, 3 children and the requisite dog and parakeet was the vision of diversity in family forms. In recent years, much attention is paid to the rise of the lone parent family and to cohabiting adults. However, researchers in Canada also note the existence of the multi-generational family, particularly for select ethnic groups and for the foreign born. In the United States, scholars find substantial increases in coresident grandparent-grandchildren households, especially among grandparent maintained households. These trends are fueled in part by the rise in lone parent families. However, one-third of all grand parental-grandchild families have no parents present.

Relatively little is known about grandparent-grandchildren families in Canada. In part this absence of information reflects the prevailing emphasis of family sociologists on the nuclear family and in part it reflects existing databases. As part of a larger study into the topic of grandparent-grandchild co-residency, this paper has two objectives. First, using data from the 1981, 1986, 1991 and 1996 census of population, we present the trends in grandparent-grandchild co-residency over time. We find that a growing percentage of children under age 18 are living in arrangements that include one or more grandparents. However, much of this increase occurs within the foreign born population and it in part reflects changes in the origin composition of immigrants over time. Second, in a detailed analysis of the 1996 census database housed at Statistics Canada, we ask who are the children and who are the grandparents residing in such living arrangement. We provide a socio-economic profile of these families compared to non-coresiding families. As part of this profile, we assess how recently such families have been formed utilizing the census question on residency five years and one year ago. We also assess to what extent these families are multi-generational versus skipped generational families, in which parents of children are absent.

The Long Term Effects of Immigrant Fertility on the Age Structure of the Population
Nan Li, & Zheng Wu Department of Sociology, University of Victoria

Canadian immigration policy has been designed to bolster population growth and to readjust the age structure of the population so that there would be enough people in the working population (aged 15-64) to support the elderly population (65 and over). This policy has been criticized for being only a short-term solution in part because fertility is known to be the key determinant of the age structure for the long run and immigrant fertility tends to be lower than non-immigrant fertility. In this paper we develop an analytical model to examine the long-term effects of immigrant fertility on the age structure of the population. We apply the model to recent Canadian data under various assumptions concerning the age distribution, the number, the fertility of immigrants, as well as the level of emigration. Our results show that the age structure of Canadian population will always be younger (as measured by the ratio of elderly population to the overall population) so long as immigrant fertility exceeds a threshold level, approximately 30% of the non-immigrant fertility. The implications of the results are discussed in the context of the Canadian immigration policy.

Canadians Residing Temporarily in Developing Countries at the end of the 1990s: An Insight
Denis Gonthier, & Margaret Michalowski, Demography Division, Statistics Canada

It seems that Canadians are participating with an increasing frequency in the international movement of people who cross borders for longer but not necessarily permanent stays in foreign countries. The 1996 Canadian census coverage error studies indicate that over one-third of Canadians who left Canada during the 1991-96 period could be considered as temporary emigrants. Results of the studies done in other countries indicate that the temporary migration is becoming a more dominant form of geographical mobility all over the world. As it is demonstrated in this paper, this fairly recent feature of international migration adds significantly to challenges faced by national statistical agencies. The innovative use of old, already existing data sources as well as a development of new data will likely respond to these challenges.

The paper describes a new source of information on Canadians considered as temporary emigrants and residing in developing countries, which is Registration of Canadians Abroad database (ROCA) of Department of External Affairs and International Trade. Canadian diplomatic missions abroad are mandated to register all Canadians in developing countries who reside there for longer than 3 months. This database was developed during 1994-95 and is updated on the on-going basis. It includes information on Canadians residing in close to 200 countries but targets specifically developing countries. So far, an exploration of this data source has led to a development of method to estimate the size of the population of Canadians living temporarily in developing countries. These estimates, produced for the end of the 1990s, are discussed in the paper, together with the profile of this population with respect to some demographic and family-related characteristics. The source provides also an insight into the main purpose of residence of Canadians in the foreign country. Some very interesting hypotheses with respect to propensity to emigrate can be formulated based on the statistics from ROCA. For example, it is estimated that one-third of Canadians living temporarily abroad were born in the country of temporary residence.

The findings of the above study could be used by Statistics Canada to modify the currently used estimation methodology for emigration. As for the future, Statistics Canada expended its 2001 Census coverage error study to collect better quality and more detailed information on Canadians living abroad. Direct interviews with those who are residing in the US in 2001 will be conducted.

Interprovincial Migration Projections in Canada, 2000-2026
Ravi Verma, Development and Demographic Methods Section, Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada is going to release a new set of population projections using the 2000 population estimates for Canada, provinces and territories, 2000-2026. These projections are developed using the cohort-component method, requiring assumptions of fertility, mortality and migration components of population change. At the provincial level, internal migration constitutes the most unstable component of population change. It is therefore, a major source of uncertainty in population projections. The method of projecting internal migration is more complex over other components of population change, which have relatively smooth curves, or longer or more regular cycles. In contrast, interprovincial migration is characterized by large fluctuations and reversals in trends. Thus, it requires a careful consideration when making population projections. In developing interprovincial migration assumptions, the strategy has been to provide a range that can reasonably encompass future levels of net migration for each of the ten provinces and three territories. The feedback from the provincial and territorial statistical focal points regarding the expected future scenarios of net migration was also incorporated. Three scenarios of interprovincial migration (central, medium and western) were developed based on analysis of annual estimates of interprovincial migration from taxation files from 1976 to 1998 and child benefit administrative files from 1998-1999. The purpose of this paper is to describe the data sources and methods used in developing the long-term scenarios of measures of migration trends. The average range in the current projections of net migration for the years 2000-2026 will be compared with those developed and used in population projections by age and sex for Canada, provinces and territories released in September 1999. In addition, the impact of current projections of inter-provincial migration on projected population growth between 2000 to 2026 for selected provinces will be analyzed.

Projected Population Size and Age Structure of Canada's Population With and Without Immigrants
Shirley Loh, and M.V. George, Demography Division, Statistics Canada

Due to a continuation of the current low fertility, which is much below the replacement level, the role of net international migration have on the future growth and age structure of the Canadian population has become more significant. The annual change in fertility and mortality is rather slow while the yearly fluctuation in immigration can be quite volatile and substantial. For example, when the West was opened, immigration exceeded 300,000 per annum for the years 1911 to 1913, but fell to between 11,000 and 27,000 during the Depression. Immigration surged again soon after the Second World War, and reached a peak of 282,164 in 1957. Even during the most recent years, 1985 to 1998, annual immigration varied from 84,302 to 255,819. According to the latest information, net international immigration adds about 166,000 people to the Canadian population given the current annual target level of 225,000 immigrants and current total emigration level of 59,000. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of net international immigration as a major factor of population growth in the next 50 years. The paper will also examine the role of immigration as a mechanism to postpone prospective population decline and to counteract population aging. The role that net immigration will have on the growth and age structure of the Canadian population will be examined by comparing the projected Canadian population with and without net immigration.

Regional Migration in Nepal: Crossing Beyond the Push and Pull Factors
Juhee Suwal, Department of Sociology, The University of Alberta

After the unification of the country in 1769, internal migration started to take place in Nepal. Seasonal migration from highlands to lowlands in winter has a long history in the country. However, the massive internal migration was noted only a few decades ago after the east-west and north-south highways were built, and after the deadly malaria was controlled in the south. The majority of people seem to move from the highlands (North Himalayas and hills) to the lowlands (valleys and the flat lands in the south). This study explores the pull and push factors of migration in Nepal. What groups of population are motivated to move the most and what are the destinations and motivations for these people, are some of the research questions that this study deals with. The flow of migration and the net migration rates for 1981 to 1991 are computed by age groups for different regions of the country so as to measure the intensity and direction of migration by age in that period. Based on the findings, the control mechanisms for migration are discussed and some valuable suggestions are recommended.

Migration Between the United States and Canada
Marie-France Germain & Claude Grenier

Migration between the United States and Canada is not a recent phenomenon. However, in the past few years, a debate on the number of Canadian emigrants, especially those working in knowledge-based occupations, has emerged in the scientific community and in the media. These exchanges of human capital, by creating what has been called a brain drain, have benefited mostly to the United States, especially in terms of number.

In this context, it is interesting to compare the two migrant populations, i.e. the Canadians in the United States and the Americans in Canada, in terms of numbers and characteristics. Which of the two countries incur a deficit in the number of migrants? Are the characteristics comparable from one group of migrants to the other or from one group of migrants to the population of their home or host country? Are there any differences between the characteristics of youngest and oldest migration cohorts? To obtain demographic and socio-economic profiles of these populations, we will use the most recent census data of each country. With these databases, we can only study Canadian by birth and Americans by birth, as they do not collect information on the last country of residence. Consequently, foreign born Canadians who moved to the United States will be excluded from our analysis as well as foreign born Americans who moved to Canada.

Globalization and Temporary Migrant Workers in Canada
Jenna Hennebry, Department of Sociology, University of Western Ontario

A considerable amount of evidence is available, both on international labour migrations and on the internationalization of production and globalization, however, they come from mostly separate bodies of scholarship. Within this discourse, immigration and ethnicity are often neglected issues or they are understood as otherness and viewed solely in the context of how they affect national cohesion and local economies. Immigration and ethnicity can better be understood as a series of processes that are linked with the globalization of economic activity, cultural activity and identity formation; and as such, have major implications for the dominant notions of citizenship and national identities. In the post-war era there has been a massive expansion in migratory flows and there is now almost no state or part of the world that is not importing or exporting labour, effectively creating new systems of global stratification. This understudied set of processes has major implications for the migrant, for nation-states and their citizens, and for the international community. Understanding these factors as integral to the processes whereby global elements are localized, international labour markets are constituted, and cultures all over the world are de and re-territorialized, places immigration right at the centre of the discourse on globalization.

Temporary migrant workers represent a particularly understudied and transient group of people, although the numbers of temporary migrant workers entering the country annually, not counting those who work in Canada for less than one year, exceed the number recorded as landed immigrants. Migrants on temporary worker permits are essentially transient citizens: they integrate into the host society and take on many of the responsibilities of citizenship, while maintaining connections to their source country. As such, these workers do not share the same rights and privileges or protections as other Canadians. This places them in a unique position in the Canadian structure of inequality, and in a particularly vulnerable position in a global system of stratification; fostering the emergence of transnational identities, families, religions and culture, and challenging dominant notions of citizenship and nationality that are framed by physical and political borders. This research examined data on temporary worker permit holders derived from the Immigration Database provided by Citizenship and Immigration Canada. Using a time series analysis has facilitated the examination of migration flow patterns, rates and source countries, and socio-demographic characteristics of this migrant population over time. Emerging patterns indicate that two decades of increased globalization marked by international trade agreements, has had a substantial impact on the magnitude and characteristics of these.

Does it Pay to Migrate? The Canadian Experience
Bali Ram, Ed Shin, Demograhy Division, Statistics Canada

Do migrants gain economically from moving? The answer to this question depends largely on the characteristics of migrants themselves, the characteristics of the regions of their origin and destination, and overall economic climate. Using data from 1981, 1986, 1991 and 1996 Censuses of Canada, this paper shows that people who moved out of economically less affluent provinces showed higher income than those who were left behind on average did. But persons who moved out of wealthier provinces were not doing better than those who stayed. The largest gainers were those who moved out of the Atlantic Provinces and moved into affluent provinces such as Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia or Quebec. Biggest losers were those who moved out of affluent provinces to less affluent provinces. Among in-migrants, people who moved into an economically less resourceful province had higher income than those who did not migrate did. However, in-migrants into affluent provinces did not do better than those who stayed in the provinces. These findings remain largely unchanged even if age and education of migrants were taken into account.

A Demographic Analysis of Food Consumption Patterns in Canada's Ageing Society
Alison Yacyshyn, Department of Sociology, University of Western Ontario

This paper introduces the demographic theoretical frameworks of Malthus and Notestein to an analysis of food consumption behaviours in Canada. Focusing on Canada, the ageing of its population is used to connect changes in the aggregate food consumption levels to elderly individual behaviours. Using data that categorizes caloric intake into totals, vegetable products and animal products, consumption is analyzed between the years 1971 and 1998. Focusing on the animal product category, a detailed analysis of meat consumption is addressed whereby; imports and exports are also compared. In discussions regarding the data, changes in food consumption behaviours are linked to Canada's ageing population. Although on average Canadians continue to consume more than the suggested daily-recommended calorie intake, decreases in meat consumption are apparent. On a global context, sustainable development is an issue as Canada is in a position to aid undernourished countries due to the changes it has experienced in its own food consumption behaviours.

The Sociology of Risk and Social Demographic Change
David R. Hall, Department of Sociology, Nipissing University

A number of prominent sociologists, such as Anthony Giddens and Ulrich Beck, have identified risk as a crucial organizing principle of contemporary social behavior. Intriguingly, one of the main causes of our growing risk awareness and efforts to manage risk, is the rise of secular individualism, a concept sociologist-demographer Ron Lesthaeghe has linked to historical changes in fertility and family formation. Of the various types of risk discussed in the sociological literature, interpersonal risk or risks associated with cohabitation, marriage and parenting are of obvious salience to social demography. This paper begins by outlining how a sociological conception of risk in general, and of interpersonal risk in particular, could improve our theoretical understanding of recent changes in social demographic behavior. The paper goes on to explore whether risk perceptions involving union formation, parenting and union dissolution are associated with attitudes toward cohabitation, postponed marriage and childbearing, reduced childbearing, and voluntary childlessness.

Gender Differences in Emotional-Behavioural Outcomes of Children
Bali Ram, Demography Division, Statistics Canada

Using data from the first (1994-95) panel of the national Longitudinal Survey of Youth and Children (NLSCY), this paper examines the gender differences in a selected series of emotional-behavioural outcomes for some 11,000 Canadian children, under 12 years. Outcome measures include hyperactivity, emotional anxiety, destructive behaviour, physical aggression, indirect aggression, and pro-social behaviour, as reported by a parent, usually the mother. A multiple regression analysis controlling for child's age, sibship size, maternal age, and mother's education, revealed that overall there are significant differences by gender, with boys being more hyperactive, more destructive, and more physically aggressive, and girls being more anxiety stricken, more indirectly aggressive, and more pro-social. However, these differences vary markedly by age of children. For example, girls become increasingly less hyperactive, less destructive, and less physically aggressive as they get older. Girls are significantly less anxiety stricken than boys when they are very young, but their anxiety level increases when they enter kindergarten and reach early school age. Girls remain more pro-social than boys regardless of age, although the gap declines with increasing age.

Contact with Children After parental Separation: The Father's Perspective
Celine Le Bourdais, Heather Juby, & Nicole Marcil-Gratton, Centre Interuniversitarie d'Etudes Demographiques. Institut National de la Recherches Scientifique, Universite' de Montreal

Growing conjugal instability means that many children spend much of their childhood in a family unit that does not include their biological father; consequently, the father/child relationship is no longer assured by the daily contact, sharing a residence normally entails. The amount of contact fathers maintain with children after separation, however, is closely linked to the probability that they fulfill their financial obligations towards their children. Determining the factors likely to increase the level of father/child contact is therefore crucial to the process of reducing the risk of poverty to which children of separated parents are exposed.

This communication is based on an analysis of data from the General Social Survey (GSS) (cycle 10) of the Family, carried out in 1995 by Statistics Canada. For the first time in Canada, this survey collected information not only from separated mothers but also from fathers. Separated parents replied to questions concerning the amount of time each of their children had spent with them, and with the other parent, during the year preceding the survey. This information made it possible to adopt a father- rather than a mother-centred approach, and to take into consideration men's attitudes towards, and perceptions of, their parental role. Our analysis first explores variations in the frequency of contact separated fathers maintain with their children, and then examines the link between father/child contact and the level of satisfaction reported by separated mothers and fathers with various aspects of custody arrangements. Finally, using multi-level regression analysis, we attempt to identify the factors likely to increase the amount of contact between fathers and children.

The Demography and Family Structures of two Neighbourhoods in Gentrification, Quebec City, 1971-1996
Johanne Sanschagrin, Department of Geography, University of Toronto

The gentrification process in several Canadian cities has been studied over the past few decades. Despite the relative popularity of the topic in the literature, very few authors have looked at the evolution of family structure in the gentrified neighbourhoods. In Quebec City, a few authors have identified the emergence of these neighbourhoods beginning in the 1970s, but most have tackled the subject in terms of housing transformations. The intent of this paper is to look more closely at the characteristics that define the gentrification process and see how the demographic and family structures have evolved in these same neighbourhoods.

Contextual Analysis of Youth Integration Into Canadian Society
Zenaida R. Ravanera, Department of Sociology, University of Western Ontario

Since the 1980s, youth unemployment has been considerably higher than in the previous decade, which has given rise to concerns that many young people may have become disaffected and alienated. This paper analyzes the main activities of Canadians aged 15 to 29, their patterns of volunteering and socializing, and how these relate to dimensions of social cohesion, namely: inclusion, equality, participation, and belonging. Effects of individual and family characteristics (such as age, gender, family structure, parental education, immigration status, ethnicity, and religion) on youth integration are examined using data gathered through the General Social Surveys on Time Use conducted in 1986, 1992 and 1998. Effects of community characteristics (such as predominant family structures, culture, and mobility status within the community, and levels of community poverty or affluence) derived from the 1996 census and appended to the 1998 GSS Survey on Time Use are also explored through a multi-level statistical analysis.

Indicators of Family Change and Social Cohesion
Fernando Rajulton, Department of Sociology, University of Western Ontario

Virtually every recent work directly concerned with cohesion voices concern over the lack of a widely accepted theoretical definition. This study develops linkages between indicators of family change and indicators of social cohesion. Cohesion and exclusion are complementary ideas. Social exclusion focuses on those outside of the society's structure, either because of discrimination, unemployment or other reasons. Exclusion pays attention to those outside, and cohesion pays attention to current members.

The paper examines the adequacy of a number of measures of social cohesion on the individual, meso, and macro levels. At the individual level, measures of belonging and morale include responses to subjective questions (perceived cohesion) such as: do you feel that you belong to the group/neighbourhood/family, are you happy to be part of this group. On the meso-level (or neighbourhood cohesion) indicators of social cohesion might include sense of community ("I feel like I belong to this neighbourhood"), attraction to neighbourhood ("Overall, I'm very attracted to living in this neighbourhood"), and degree of interaction within the neighbourhood ("I visit with my neighbours in their homes"). And, on the macro-level, possible indicators are those that measure trust and social capital. These various indicators are assessed as to their usefulness in identifying social cohesion and its links to family cohesion.

Global Rationalization, the Family and Social Cohesion
Thomas Derrick, Statistics Canada

Concerns about social cohesion may be based as much on shifts in the mechanisms or institutions through which cooperation is organized as on any change in the actual level of cooperation. According to the grand narrative of classical sociology: a long established process of economic/bureaucratic rationalization has been eroding the influence of small dense networks based on affection and reputations in face to face communities. Among the structures in transition in the era of global rationalization are traditional culture, religion and perhaps most importantly the family. The 'second demographic transition' itself may be situated among the changes being wrought by these processes. Growing up instead are wider networks based on instrumental considerations, price differentials and formally defined roles. These new structures arguably coordinate effort more efficiently and produce higher not lower levels of cooperation. There is however in many quarters, an enduring nostalgia for the older affective ties (love, faith or patriotism) that seemed to secure individuals in their identities and give meaning to their lives.

From this theoretical departure; the paper will juxtapose trends related to the size, dissolution rate and functional importance of families with those related to the deepening economic rationalization, increased commodification and the expansion of market networks now underway. Wider networks and increasing pluralism challenge the legitimacy of traditional institutions and values. Differential rates of adjustment can also imply conflict, often along the lines of vestigial coordinating mechanisms or value systems. The paper will explore the connection between these trends and indicators of different aspects of social cohesion such as youth crime, suicide and the disengagement of citizens. Ultimately the paper will ask: How a better understanding of the processes at work can help us to envision new structures which secure the recognition of actors and allow them to negotiate solutions which enjoy legitimacy?

Demographic Divide in Cyberspace in the United States
K. V. Rao, Department of Sociology, Bowling Green State University

The study of racial demographics in the US is well known and has been the subject of extensive research. The disparities in racial demographics are likely to create disparities in cyberspace as well. In 1998, 29.8 percent of the US white households have access to internet while only 11.2 percent of Blacks households have such access. The percentages have increased for both racial groups by 2000 to 46.1 percent of white households and 23.5 black households. The Hispanic group and blacks have similar internet access percentages. How does this disparity in internet access transform into disparities in other areas? The internet is becoming the defacto way for business to offer services. For example, most software vendors simply refer to their web sites for updates and other important information. Similarly most e-commerce sites offer best deals on their web sites for such common household items as dish washers, dryers, heating equipment etc. If internet is not available to the households, it is likely to create a cyber divide and increase the disparities that we already observe before internet revolution. This paper examines the cyber divide employing the national current population survey data sets from 1998 and 2000 and offer recommendations on closing the gap between racial groups in cyber space accessibility.