Abstracts

Aboriginal population characteristics: Are we informed by the aggregate picture
Andrew J. Siggner, Census, Statistics Canada; Eric Guimond, Statistics Canada and Université de Montréal; Gustave Goldmann, Statistics Canada; & Norbert Robitaille, Université de Montréal

The question, from a statistical perspective, "Who is an Aboriginal?" poses several challenges for informing public policy. We present preliminary findings from our forthcoming census monograph, The Demography of Aboriginal Peoples, which examines various definitions of Aboriginal peoples and how they impact the size and growth of this population. Results also compare some demographic and socio-economic characteristics for different aggregations of the Aboriginal population and its implications for public policy. In effect, Kraeger (1997) suggests that, "for members of a given collectivity, from the family to the state, deciding who is and who is not included in the group generally determines its capacities. The estimated capacities of one group in comparison with others have a direct bearing on courses of action for all collectivities that may be implicated."

Age of demographic maturity and population policy implications
Anatole Romaniuc, retired from Statistics Canada

Canada like other developed countries has entered what may be called the age of demographic maturity. Whereas the life longevity approaches its biological limits, the fertility rate falls well below the replacement level. The "subfertility" might well be endemic to advanced societies and the process irreversible, if left to its own devices.

What are the policy implications of the population aging and imploding? Technological adaptation (increase in productivity) and the more exhaustive use of human resources (elderly and women) can provide only limited relief. Large scale, and by necessity ever-increasing, immigration to compensate for shortfalls in births is an option. It might, however, prove to be a costly one to the national cohesion (and unity) as well as to the social harmony. The conventional policy of the "family allowance" type has had little, if any, impact.

A radical reappraisal of the family's role in society and the elevation of parenthood to a profession that is financially duly rewarded are central to any population policy of a society evolving under the regime of demographic maturity. A salary-equivalent for mothers may sound farfetched. But it may not be, if one considers the enormous ever-growing wealth that free-market societies enjoy. There is obviously a long way between postulating a "concept" and making it operational. Imaginative and bold solutions are needed to meet the challenges of the age of demographic maturity. What is advocated here is not at all a populationist policy. At stake is a lasting, "healthy" demographic maturity by insuring a sufficient flow of births to maintain a numerical equilibrium between generations in the long run.

Calgary's homeless population: A profile of subgroups and their circumstances
Judith Rempel, Community Strategies Department, City of Calgary

For two years Calgary has been consulting actively with and on behalf of persons who are homeless in this city. Since 1992, attempts have been made to document their numbers, using somewhat primitive methods and conservative definitions. The result has been that 3,800 persons are presently considered homeless and 250 were interviewed in early 1998 with regard to their social, economic and health circumstances.

Charts will show that the homeless population is not at all homogenous and will profile separately: women, Aboriginal People, younger (15-24), and older persons (55+). The data are being employed in developing both social and health action plans, and may be a model for other large Canadian cities.

How the number of artificial Canadians increased from 13 million to 14 between 1991 and 1996
Karol J. Krotki, Sociology, University of Alberta

In the 1991 population census of Canada the more than a century old rule of a single ethnicity has been abandoned. Instead respondents have been invited to report as many ethnicities as they have had among their ancestors. The outcomes of the new rule in 1961 are given in millions (1996 outcomes in brackets).

As a result of the new rule, 8(10) million respondents reported more than one ethnicity, giving rise to the phenomenon of multiethnicity, each member of the 8 (10) million becoming a multiethnic. The other 19 (18) million (=27-8) (=29-10) remained single ethnics and continued living within the concept of single ethnicities.

The 8 (10) million multiethnics reported together 21 (24) million of multiethnicities. This figure of 21 (24) million is an indication of ethnic intermarriage in the past, when compared with the 19 (18) million of single ethnics, whose ancestors never intermarried ethnically.

A preliminary discussion is offered of the differential behaviour of people in the various ethnic origins with regard to the phenomena of multiethnics and multiethnicities. The role of Statistics Canada when confronted with these new data is indicated.

Canada: Human development report 1997
Srimanta Mohanty, Sociology, University of Western Ontario

Human development is a multidimensional concept comprising essentially three dimensions: health, education and economy. In the present report, an attempt has been made to assess the level of human development for various provinces in Canada. It also examines the regional differential in the level of economic development of Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) in Ontario. In the inter-province analysis, three indicators of human development such as life expectancy at birth (e0), literacy 15 years and over (LIT15+) and per capita income (PCI) are taken into account. but in the case of CMA analysis, ten indicators of economic development (labour force activities: three indicators; occupation major groups: four indicators, and Income: three indicators) are used. Using taxonomic methods variations between the provinces as well as between the CMAs in Ontario have been examined. The results reveals that British Columbia is at the highest level of human development. Newfoundland is at the lowest position in the level of human development. The CMA analysis shows a clear economic situation of CMAs in Ontario, indicating that Ottawa-Hull and Toronto are the more developed economic CMAs for males and females respectively. St. Catharines-Niagara is the least developed economic CMA in Ontario. It is hoped that this report will provide new direction for human development in Canada as well as for economic development in Ontario.

Causal model of fertility in Ghana
Kwame A. Boadu, Sociology, University of Alberta

This paper contends tht fertility behaviour among Ghanaian women is affected by a multitude of demographic, socioeconomic and cultural factors. The present study, based on the 1988 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys examines the effects of the following variables on fertility, age, education, ideal number of children, marital duration, preferred waiting time before next birth, duration of contraceptive use, total number of living children, and total number of dead children. A primary objective of the study is to contrast regression approaches and LISREL equation medelling in the conceptualization of fertility behaviour in Ghana.

Changes in the Nest: Young Canadian Adults Living with Parents, 1981-1996
Monica Boyd, Sociology, Florida State University & Doug Norris, General Social Survey, Statistics Canada

Using census data, this paper analyses the living arrangements of young adults, age 15-34 during the 1980s and 1990s. We build on earlier research in two ways. First, we update earlier trends with findings from the 1996 census. Second, we extend earlier research on unmarried young adults by examining marital status variations in young adult-parental co-residency.

Previous studies show increases in the percentages of young adults are living with parents between 1971 and 1991. Our research confirms the continuation of this trend. Between 1981-1996, the percentages of young adults between 15 and 34 living with one or more parents steadily rose. In addition to temporal increases in young adults living with parents, there was a significant aging of the young adult population at home. Fuelled by the march of the baby boom generation (born between 1948-1964) into and out of their twenties, approximately one in five of those young adults living at home is age 25 or older.

The 1980 and 1990s witnessed the postponement of marriage by many young adults. Our data show there was a corresponding increase in unmarried young adult population. Since this latter group is most at risk of living in the parental home, we ask if the temporal rise in young adults living at home can be attributable to declines in marriage. Decomposition of difference in rates techniques reveal that between 45 to 65% of the temporal increase between 1981 and 1996 did reflect the shifts in the marital composition of the young adult population (the range reflects analyses specific for age and gender groups). However, the shift away from marriage or cohabitation is not the only factor accounting for temporal increases in the tendency to co-reside with parents. Even within the unmarried population and among the married population, rates rose, implying that by the middle of the 1990s, young adults of all marital persuasions were simply more likely to be in the parental home than in previous decades.

The remainder of the paper compares and contrasts the propensities to live with parents for unmarried and married young Canadian adults, the latter referring to those with legal marriages and those living common-law. By 1996, over one-third of all unmarried adults age 25-34 were living with one or both parents. Since marriage is closely associated with separate residence, the percentages of the married were much lower than the percentages observed for unmarried young adults. However, in 1996 about two out of fifty young married adults were living at home. Legally married young adults were more likely to be co-residing with parents than adults in common law marriages.

The aging of the live at home population also characterizes both the unmarried and married. Among the unmarried population living with parents, approximately one in five of those young adults living at home is age 25 or older. Among the population age 15-34 and living at home, married young adults are older than those who are unmarried. In 1996 over two-thirds of married adults living with parents were age 25 and older compared to less than 20 percent of the unmarried population co-residing with parents.

We also examine differences by gender, finding that women are less likely to live at home than are men. The only exception occurs among the married population, age 15-19 where women are more likely to be in the parent home than are young married men. We conclude our paper with a look at those factors most likely to predict who lives at home for unmarried and married young adults.

Comparative demographic transition in the four southern Indian States
P. Krishnan, Sociology, University of Alberta

Demographic transition of Karala's population is well known in the literature. Recent studies by Mahadevan and associates show that Tamil Nadu, in spite of several differences with Kerala, has attained low levels of fertility and mortality (A Welfare Model of Demographic Transition, New Delhi: B.R. Publication Company, 1997). Karnataka, according to Hanumantha Rayappa (1998) is experiencing declines in both fertility and mortality. Of all the four southern states, Andhra is the one that is lagging behind in the rapidity of declines. The reasons for the transitional movements are examined. A picture of India as a whole is presented to note that the southern States are far ahead of others in India. The other States have their own stories to tell, some of these will be brought out. A scenario for India in the wake of 20st century will be pointed out and its implcations discussed.

Demography goes to Market: Using Census Data to Make Business Decisions
Connie LeClair, Calgary Regional Office, Statistics Canada

This poster presents a real business application where demographic data is used to determine the type and size of a market. The objective of the project is to examine the changes in a specified market area and thereby assist the client in the redevelopment of their retail property.

Using age, sex, family formation, migration, population projections and income, the author identifies the present population (1996) and contrasts it with the population of the same geographical area at an earlier date (1991). The change in population (number and type) is the first indicator used to assess the value of the market area. The population projections will provide an indicator of future growth.

Once a profile of the area's present population is assembled, special tabulations from the Family Expenditure Survey are prepared. By analyzing these tables, the expected pattern of expenditure for the trade area can be quantified and qualified. This report on the composition and market value of the trade area will serve in "selling" the retail property to desired tenants.

The author made extensive use of a GIS in the analytical process. Colour maps were used to present the report findings to the client. The use of maps makes demographic data interesting to look at and easy to understand. Thematic mapping is an excellent way to simplify analytical results and thereby, make the findings accessible to a larger population. If business decisions are to be made based on solid data, the result of any analysis must be presented in a way that is comfortable and understandable to the decision maker. When demography goes to market, it has to speak the talk of the trade!

Divergence of Quebec/Non-Quebec Marriage Patterns
Michael S. Pollard, Sociology, University of Victoria and Zheng Wu, Sociology, University of Victoria

Within the last 20 years the declines in marriage rates and marriage prevalence have been significantly greater for Quebec than the rest of Canada. This analysis examines the divergence of Canadian marriage patterns using ideational theory, which suggests that region itself, as a proxy for cultural settings and normative code, will be a significant determinant in the marriage process. The data were drawn from the 1995 General Social Survey (n=5,902 women). The effects of economic factors, in addition to region and other cultural markers, are examined using discrete-time event-history methods. The findings suggest that factors identified by standard economic models are insufficient in an explanation of the regional differentials. There was little decline in the effect of region after controlling for a wide range of background and other characteristics. Further analysis indicates that unmarried Quebec women place less importance on marriage, but greater importance on lasting relationships, than other unmarried Canadian women, highlighting the role of cohabitation in Canadian union formation.

Diversity of the conjugal trajectories of Canadian women
Céline LeBourdais, Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS)-Urbanisation, Ghislaine Neill, Institute national de la recherche scientifique (INRS)-Urbanisation

The development of non-marital cohabitation and the rise of union instability that have been observed since the 1970s have led to a proliferation of conjugal life courses. Recent research has shown that the majority of young Canadians are now starting their conjugal life in a non-marital relationship; but the first cohabiting unions remain fairly short-lived and are more likely to end in a separation than to be transformed into a marriage (Turcotte and Belanger, 1997). Little is known, however, concerning the conjugal paths on which individuals embarked once their first union has collapsed. Which conjugal trajectories are cohabitors or married individuals likely to follow once they have experienced a separation? Which and how many conjugal transitions will they go through? What is the impact that past behaviours are likely to have on future conjugal histories? And how have these patterns evolved across generations? This paper aims to shed some light on these issues by comparing the conjugal life courses followed by women living in Quebec and in the rest of Canada. Based on the retrospective data collected in the 1995 General Social Survey, the analysis is conducted using multiple-decrement life talbes with the computer package LIFEHIST developed by Rajulton.

Effects of changing forms of employment on the division of housework within Canadian families
Céline LeBourdais, Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS) - Urbanisation, Université du Quêbec and Annie Sauriol, Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS) - Urbanisation, Université du Quêbec

The rise of female employment and the development of atypical employment schedules, as well as the increase of conjugal instability and the diversification of families that have been observed in the past twenty-five years, have affected family life and modified the division of household labour between men and women. This paper aims to disentangle the effect that each of these phenomena has exerted on the domestic organization of Canadian families with children. More precisely, we measure to what extent the participation in the labour market of both partners (number of hours worked or combined employment schedules) affects the propensity of males to contribute to housework, when controlling for other socioeconomic characteristics of the family. We also evaluate the impact that the type of union chosen by couples or the type of family they formed has upon the division of housework between genders. The analysis is based upon data from the 1990 General Social Survey conducted by Statistics Canada.

Era Banner Readers' Behaviour: Shopping Locations and Habits
Jim Jackson, Human Studies Division, Humber College

This report examines the demographic data listed from the 1997 Metroland readership survey. This survey records the incomes, educational levels, R.R.S.P. ownership rates and consumer behavior in the Era-Banner's catchment area. In this survey, it was found that the average income of the residents, in this are of York Region, was $63,000.

The survey illustrates the Era-Banner readers' favorite sporting activities, types of household possessions and how the readers make their purchases. The survey names the locations of the malls where the readers make their purchases. The frequency of the Era-Banner readers' shopping visits, at some Metroland malls, is also examined in this report.

This information is most useful for the businesses and the services in the York Region. In short, this report deals with how demographic research can be applied for developing a business or a service.

Ethnic diversity and residential segregation in Canada's CMAs
Madeline A. Kalbach, Ethnicity Chair, Sociology, University of Calgary. Warren E. Kalbach, Sociology, University of Calgary, and Bridget Shannon, Sociology, University of Calgary

A landmark change in Canada's immigration policy began with the White Paper in 1962. This policy paper indicated that immigrants could no longer be denied entry to Canada on the basis of race, religion, ethnic origin, nationality or birthplace. The immigration regulations were changed in 1967 making this an official part of immigration policy. Hence, the composition of the immigrant stream changed from being predominantly European in nature to being predominantly non-European. This change in the composition of the immigrant stream increased the ethnic diversity of Canada's CMAs. This paper examines the changes in patterns of ethnic diversity and residential segregation between 1981 and 1991 for the 26 largest Canadian CMAs. It is hypothesized that indexes of diversity in 1991 will probably reflect an increases in the ethnic mix of Canada's CMAs especially in the Prairies. Within the CMAs, it is likely that indexes of residential segregation and dissimilarity will continue to support the notion of a continuing mosaic rather than a gradual blurring of ethnic community boundaries with the passage of time, which is characteristics of the assimilation process.

Ethnicity and Economic Niches: An Analysis of the Integration of Immigrants into the Canadian Economy
Margaret Adsett, Citizenship and Canadian Identity Canadian Heritage

Since the work of John Porter in the 1960s, the importance of ethnicity to social stratification has been well recognized but somewhat underexplored. Using 1991 Census data and factor analytic techniques, this study examines the relationship between the ethnicity of immigrants and their location in the Canadian economy. Four ethnic-specific niches are identified: 1) the gainfully employed, 2) employers, 3) investors, and 4) management and professional. Results are then used to develop a scale of economic integration for the purposes of monitoring changes in these niches, including changes in the status of immigrants of various ethnic backgrounds, over time.

Gender and cohort experiences of work histories: Evidence from the GSS 1995
Rajulton Fernando, Sociology, University of Western Ontario and Zenaida Ravanera, Sociology, University of Western Ontario

Various studies on work and family life histories have explored the relationship between the two, particularly for women. Since for the first time the 1995 General Social Survey on the Family collected information on work histories as well, we examine the relationship between work and family life events through a life course perspective. We consider the transitions between eight states, namely "start of work", "family formation", "family extension", "family dissolution", "first work interruption", "return to work after first interruption', "second interruption", and "return to work after second interruption". Since the sequences of transitions among these states are of primary importance, we focus on analysing them through the latest techniques developed in the field of sequential analysis.

Thus, the purpose of this paper is threefold: 1) to examine the relationship between family life and work events and how they differ by cohorts, gender, and socio-economic characteristics; 2) to examine how well the GSS 1995 data capture the common work patterns already observed in many developed societies; and, 3) to explore the relevance of sequential analysis techniques (mainly used in biomedical sciences) to social scientists who are interested in analysing life histories.

Gender system, partnership dissolution and family policy
Beverly Matthews, Sociology, University of Lethbridge

Abstract unavailable

Homelessness: Who is at Risk?
Laurie Goldmann, Sociology, Carleton University

Homelessness is increasingly recognized as a problem in Canadian society. However there is a lack of demographic data on this population. Demographic information about the at-risk group(s) will contribute to a comprehensive understanding of homelessness. Through a discussion of the existing forms of homelessness and an analysis of the primary causes I will illustrate that every member of the Canadian population is at risk. The results of this analysis will highlight the need for the public and private sectors to focus on the elimination of the causes of homelessness rather than "Band-Aid" solutions.

Immigration to Canada's largest metropolitan areas: Results from the 1996 Census
Jane Badets, Housing, Family and Social Statistics, Statistics Canada and Linda Howatson-Leo, Housing, Family and Social Statistics, Statistics Canada

Drawing on results of the 1996 Census, this presentation will describe and compare the characteristics of recent immigrants to Canada's largest metropolitan areas: Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. Changes in those characteristics since the 1991 census will be investigated as well and data for small levels of geography, specifically CSDs, will be used, where possible.

The primary focus will be on the size and geographical origin of recent immigrants as well as their settlement patterns. Nevertheless, their language profile (knowledge of official languages, home language, and mother tongue), their educational attainment, and their labour force activities will also be examined.

Methodological issues in the study of family violence: The utility of incidence versus prevalence rates
Douglas A. Brownridge, Sociology, University of Manitoba and Shiva S. Halli, Sociology, University of Western Ontario and Tony Haddad, Sociology, University of Western Ontario

Family violence is a social problem that is increasingly coming to the attention of policymakers and is a burgeoning area of social research. However, there have been many methodological problems that have hindered our understanding of the scope of the problem. One such problem is the choice of measurement of occurrence of violence. In this area of inquiry, the commonly used measures are incidence and prevalence rates. These measures have typically been used by researchers based on their convenience rather than taking into account their theoretial basis. However, the theoretical differences underlying these measures have implications for our understanding of the scope of the problem and for the development of social policy. The purpose of the present paper, then, is to highlight these methodological concerns and their implications based on data sources such as Statistics Canada's Violence Against Women Survey.

Modeling fertility rates in Alberta and its health regions: 1986-96
Donald Schopflocher, Health Surveillance, Alberta Health & Yan Jin, Health Surveillance, Alberta Health

A model of fertility was developed to describe age-specific fertility rate trends over the past decade in Alberta. This model is an extension of Lee-Carter model (Lee and Carter, 1992) which is used in mortality projections by several countries. The results were compared to those obtained using the Pearson Type III curve estimation method used by Statistics Canada for recent population projections. Under some circumstances, the fit using the extended Lee-Carter model is an improvement over those obtained with the Pearson Type III model. The use of the model to project future fertility is also illustrated.


Mortality among the oldest old in Canada: Differential mortality patterns or poor data quality?
André Lebel, Demography, Université de Montréal and Robert Bourbeau, Demography, Université de Montréal

The main object of this paper is to better understand mortality patterns among the oldest old (80 years and over) over the past half-century in Canada. In industrialized countries, half of all female deaths and a third of male deaths occur in these advanced ages (United Nations, 1991). The evolution of this phenomenon thus plays a significant role with respect to increases in life expectancy and the intensity of population aging. Our paper stems from the wider debate regarding the possible limits of human longevity (Ahlburg and Vaupel, 1990; Manton et al., 1991; Olshansky, 1992) and the evolution of mortality among the oldest old (Bennett and Olshansky, 1996; Kannisto et al., 1994; Thatcher, 1992; Condran et al., 1991; Depoid, 1973).

Quantitative data for our analysis is mainly derived from two sources from Statistics Canada (1997): firstly, the Canadian census, with population data by sex and age (80-119 years) from 1971 to 1991; secondly, annual Vital Statistics mortality data by sex, age at death (80-119 years) and year of birth over the period 1951-1995.

A team of researchers at Odense University in Denmark recently evaluated the quality of Canadian mortality data among the oldest old to be poor, specifically with respect to the precision of age (Kannisto et al., 1994; Kannisto, 1994). On the other hand, some believe that differentials between Canada (and the United States) in the mortality calendar among the oldest old and Europe are not readily explained by poor data quality, but rather by the particular profile of North American mortality (Condran, Himes and Preston, 1991; Bennett and Olshansky, 1996; Kestenbaum, 1997). An important area of our research thus consists of an evaluation of the quality of Canadian mortality data for those aged 80 years and over.

Drawing on mortality statistics, which generally offer greater coverage, we reconstitute this population with the help of the method of extinct generations (Vincent, 1951).

Results obtained for Canada are compared to those by Kannisto et al. (1994) for several industrialized countries in order to ascertain whether Canada in fact experiences a distinct mortality profile among the oldest old.

Natives' and Non-natives' relative risk of early parental loss due to marital breakdown: The s of family background characteristics and adverse parental behaviours
Margaret DeWit, Sociology and Anthropology, Indiana University/Purdue University at Fort Wayne and David J. DeWit, Social Evaluation and Research, Addiction Research Foundation, London, Ontario

This study examined data from the Ontario health Survey Supplement (1990/91) and a sample of native Ontario reserve residents (Embree, 1993) in order to compare and contrast Natives' and Non-natives' risk of early parental loss due to marital breakdown.

Proportional Hazards (PH) modelling was employed to identify factors associated with the risk and timing of family disruption prior to age 16 in both cultural groups. In addition to considering the age cohort of the respondent, special consideration was given to adverse family characteristics or behaviours such as parental substance abuse and psychological disorders, parental unemployment and childhood sexual victimization as precursors to family disruption.

We identify a number of family traits which, for both Natives and Non-natives alike, may place children at significantly increased liability of early parental loss through marital dissolution, including paternal substance abuse, maternal depression, and childhood sexual victimization. Less consistent but significant effects are also observed with respect to parental unemployment, close affective ties between parents and their children, and younger age cohorts.

Analysis of non-response patterns suggests that parameter estimates of associated factors in the Native model may be weakened by substantial selective non-response on certain covariates among those undergoing parental separation; at the same time, it is evident that the actual prevalence of early family disruption is underestimated by 50 percent in the Native sample. Adjusting for the effects of non-response, our results demonstrate that Natives suffer more than twice the rate of marital breakdown (20.5%) of the Non-native sample (8.8%).

Notwithstanding data limitations, the profile of family behaviours and characteristics suggested by this study may be useful in identifying children (and families) at greatest risk of disruption and may also help to inform treatment strategies for those from disrupted backgrounds.

New Developments in Projecting the Registered Indian Population in Canada: A Review of Methods, Data Sources and Assumptions (Shirley Loh, Statistics Canada, Ravi Verma, Statistics Canada, M.V. George, Statistics Canada, Edward Ng, Statistics Canada, M.J. Norris, Statistics Canada, and Pierre Gauvin

New developments with respect to the base population and the methods used for component projections have been incorporated in the most recent population projections of registered Indians, 1996 to 2021, prepared by the Population Projections Section of Statistics Canada for the Department of Indian Affairs and Northern Development (DIAND). The new developments that will be discussed in this paper are: the cohort component approach to project regional populations by on- and off-reserve separately; the inclusion of the impact of the revised Indian Act's inheritance rules affecting eligibility or entitlement to be registered, as a component of growth; and the exploration of the possibility of projecting migration to and from reserves, based on the one-time migration data from the 1991 Aboriginal Peoples Survey (APS). In addition, two sets of population projections for registered Indians have been developed: one is band-affiliated for Canada and regions by on- and off-reserve populations, and the other is region-based for the off-reserve population, using the geographic residence as per the results of the 1996 Census.


Productive activities of Canadian adults at mid-life: Family, work and children
Roderic Beaujot, Sociology, University of Western Ontario and Tony Haddad, Sociology, University of Western Ontario

At ages 30-54, the majority of Canadian adults are married, living in two-generation nucelar families, are parents, and are employed. Nonetheless, there are important variations in terms of their relative involvement in work and family. Both marriage and children reduce the likelihood of women working full-time, while they increase this likelihood for men. Data on time-use indicate that the average total work time (paid plus unpaid) of women and men is not very different, but its distribution into paid and unpaid components is unequal, especially when young children are present. Models of the relative importance of paid and unpaid work show that neo-traditional models remain predominant, a significant minority have divisions that might be described as a "double day" for women, but other patterns invlude those where men do more total work, as well as symmetrical arrangements of more equal involvement in economic and domestic activities.

Recent evolution in the settlement and relocation patterns of new immigrants to Canada with an emphasis on metropolitan areas
Alain Bélanger, Demography, Statistics Canada and Jacques Ledent, INRS-Urbanisation, Montréal This paper will uncover the spatial aspects of the changing nature of immigration to Canada over the last three intercensal periods (1981-86, 1986-91, 1991-96). In particular, it will examine the evolution of 1) the initial location of new immigrants and 2) their subsequent relocation in relation to a 15-region system consisting of 9 metropolitan regions--three of which corresponding to the three most populous CMAs, i.e., Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver--and six non-metropolitan regions.

Role of immigration in shaping the distribution of the Canadian population among provinces and metropolitan areas
Alain Bélanger and Jacques Ledent, INRS-Urbanisation, Montréal
The steady flow of immigrants, which Canada has received over the last decade (more than 200,000 per year) and which it is committed to receive for some time to come, tends to have a substantial impact on the spatial distribution of the population. Not only is such distribution affected by the marked preference of new immigrants for metropolitan areas and especially for the three most populous ones, but also they are affected by the internal movements of earlier immigrants whose patterns prove to be somewhat different from those of the Canadian-born population. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of immigration on the evolution of the spatial distribution of the Canadian population over the next half-century. This investigation will be based on a set of population projections carried out for an open birthplace-dependent multiregional system of Canada, using alternative assumptions about the level and the composition, in terms of age and origin, of future immigrants.

Stochastic Population Projections
N.M. Lalu, Sociology, University of Alberta & P. Krishnan, Sociology, University of Alberta

The method of population projections has undergone change over time. In view of low fertility, the developed countries have dropped the "high fertility" assumption to replace it by a "modified high", where fertility increases from a low value to a high of 1.7 per female. Questions are being raised as to the level off low fertility. Namboodiri and Wei, in their 1997 IUSSP paper note that most fertility theories suggest a bottom value of zero TFR. It is only the ecological theory of fertility that points to a value of TFR above zero. The low fertility level is assumed to behave in a particular manner to 1.2 or even 1.0. These are some of the scenarios in regard to the locus of fertility.

For mortality, as it is already very low, not many scenarios are presented for developed countries. Mortality scenarios may have to be considered, when developing countries are discussed. Migration is treated in a different manner.

The various scenarios for mortality and fertility may not be as smooth as the ones assumed by the researcher. The random component jumps in at the fertility and also at the mortality levels. For a realistic population projection, the stochastic nature of the paths of the vital processes has to be recognized. This paper attempts to do that. Various types of stochastic (random) components are considered. The expected (or the average) path will be the same as the one considered by the conventional projection methodology. By stochastic projections, we get a range within which population lies. Canadian data are employed for this excercise.

Study of birth intervals in Nepal
Juhee Suwal, Sociology, University of Alberta

Event histories such as birth, pregnancy, and marriage histories have been used by social scientists to study fertility behaviours of groups of women. There is no doubt that birth history analysis provides much useful information regarding fertility and family formation. The purpose of this study is to analyze the three consecutive birth intervals to gain information on the fertility behaviours of Napalese women.

The data source for this study is the Nepal Fertility, Family Planning and Health Survey, 1991, which was conducted under the Demographic Health Survey (DHS), Macro International Inc., Maryland, U.S.A. The sample size was 25,384 of which 5.3 percent were urban and 94.7 percent were rural women. The unit of analysis was the woman in age group 15-19, who was living with her husband.

Cox regression model was used for statistical analysis of the data. The dependent variables are the first birth interval (duration of marriage to first birth), the second birth interval (duration of first birth to the second birth), and the third birth interval (duration of second birth to the third). Each dependent variable is analyzed separately by different Cox residence, religion, ethnicity, current age of women, age at union (with husband), cash earning by women, education of women, education of husbands, occupation of women, occupation of husbands, sex of previous child/children.

The selected covariates included in this study show different effects on all three birth intervals. Many of the findings support the results of previous studies. From the birth history presented in this study, it is clear that the concept of marriage and birth in Nepal have changed lately. Highly educated women appear to have control over their reproductive lives. The findings also suggest that Nepalese women are more open about their sexual relationships, are in favour of modern romantic marriages as opposed to traditional arranged ones. It is found that fertility decisions depend on the women's residence, the occupations they and their husbands are involved in, and the age when they first started to have relationship with their husbands.

In spite of all these findings, cultural disparities among different ethnic gorups have shown remarkable influence on birth intervals. In general, after the first birth, women seem to be eager to complete their duty of reproduction by bearing the second and the third child early and then get involved in other work. Nevertheless, compared to older women, the younger women do not wait long for the first baby but are wise enough to delay the third birth. Despite these results, preferences for sons is still found to be a strong cultural norm. However, it appears that the first-borns are considered to be the most important ones.

Trends and Variations in the Early Life Courses of Canadian Men
Zenaida Ravanera, Sociology, University of Western Ontario, Rajulton Fernando, Siology, University of Ontario, and Thomas Burch, Sociology, University of Western Ontario

This study analyzes the timing and sequences of early life transitions of Canadian men born between 1916 and 1975 using the data gathered through the 1995 General Social Survey of Family and Friends. Six events which usually occur in early adulthood are examined: (a) school completion, (b) first job, (c) home-leaving (d) first cohabitation, (e) first marriage, and (f) first birth. Variations in the timing and sequences of these events by cohorts and by social status of parents, region of residence, and cultural influences are explored.

Our earlier study of Canadian women showed that the timing and seqences of transitions have greatly changed in the past 60 years with biggest changes in school completion and start of work. We also found that women's life courses do differ by socio-economic characteristics. Women with college education, for example, spend the shortest time to "take off" but take the longest to "settle down". This study examines whether such changes and differences have also occurred among men.

Urbanization in Cuba
G.Edward Ebanks, Sociology, University of Western Ontario

The paper examines Urbanization in Cuba from 1950 to the present and a brief look into the future. The period before the 1959 revolution will be contrasted with that since that time.

The period before is typical of a country in the beginning of the third part of the demographic transition. Since 1960, governmental policies have slowed down rural to urban migration and have affected the growth of Havana.

Cuba is still a highly urbanized society. Current governmental policies will change the rate of rural-to-urban migration, and the urban population will increase somewhat. However, there are still some policies that will detract from these demographic process. Cuba is doing what the Plan of Action proposes: ignoring the demographic variables when socio-economic planning is being put in place.

Using a process-oriented framework to identify the determinants of mortality: A case study of elderly Canadian women
Judy-Lynn Richards, Demography Division, Statistics Canada

In this paper, I present a process-grounded framework that illustrates a need to reconsider the methodological, conceptual, and theoretical assumptions embedded in the approaches on which we rely heavily for mortality research. Process refers to the complex interactions that exist among social correlates, changes in statuses, biological factors, and morbidity states that create alternate pathways to mortality; it incorporates also the notion of time. The framework presents a shift in emphasis from the identification of the determinants of mortality patterns, toward an examination of the effects produced from the intertwining nature of different determinants. Suggested is a focus on the interactions of indicators, such as education, age, gender, etc., with other aspects of life, such as changes in status, lifestyle, and the passage of time. Processes can be culturally specific.

I use the process-oriented framework in a case study approach to explore a paradox involving the mortality patterns of elderly Canadian women. I investigate the paradox that although this group of women are among the poorest in Canadian society, the least well educated, with a high number of births, their survival curve continues to rectangularize at a faster rate than their male counterparts. It could be argued that differences in Canadian living conditions between men and women are too slight to make any difference in life expectancy (United Nations, 1986). If this were so, there would be no real differences in the survival curves of men and women; they should be relatively proportional to one another. But, they are not (Desjardins and Dumas, 1993: 30). My application of the conceptual framework reveals a hidden, yet intricate, intertwining of the determinants of mortality, such as social correlates, with morbidity and status change patterns over time, suggesting the existence of more complex survival patterns.

My paper, then, reveals two important issues. First, there are implicit and explicit inconsistencies in the assumptions about the links among social correlates, morbidity, and mortality patterns. Thus, we cannot rely solely on morbidity and social correlate patterns to predict levels of mortality. Second, many questions surrounding mortality and its causes remain unanswered. Mortality is one of the cornerstones of demography; these issues create a gap in the literature.

It is critical that we close this knowledge gap; in the next century demographers from all over the world will witness the occurrence of the largest number of natural deaths since the study of demography began. In addition, several researchers (Dumas, 1994; Felligi, 1993; Riley, 1997; Stone, 1987) warn that continued declining mortality rates at older ages will result in the largest cohort of elderly people ever, and, with it, bring social implications for society. Consequently, it is imperative that we discover what delays and accelerates mortality levels, for the consequences affect us all.